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At first, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a resolute position on the Ukrainian conflict. Following making statements of "significant consequences" in August if Russia's president persisted obstructing peace negotiations, he ultimately enacted major penalties on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially hindered Putin's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his latest comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, which was created by US and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Military Action

The former president's initiative would in practice benefit Putin for invading Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite strong statements that "The nation's independence will be upheld", much of the plan in reality undermine that same sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business experience, Trump seems to view the war as a basic territorial dispute, implying giving Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will please the ruler. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about controlling a destroyed area of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear goal to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that his deepening autocracy prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in place the currently separated regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk region. Aside from benefiting Russia with land that its forces have been unable to occupy in exceeding a decade of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Russian forces a clear route to the capital should he subsequently opt to restart the war.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would enable renewed fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the size of its troops from their existing large number personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's proposal imposes no similar restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's proposal states: "All extremist belief system and actions must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, Trump places no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his regime by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken similar treaties in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of captured land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should we trust this commitment on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "immediate unified military response" in case the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics vary from fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not just deny the nation Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby preventing the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Putin from restoring his diminished military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Reaction

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. But in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the dedication of Western powers, such as Trump, to act with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not