Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
